Where we are now
There is no single entity with all the levers for change in adult social care. It is a complex system with influence spread across several groups - and that is why we need a strategy. Several bodies own the levers of change in adult social care: national government; local government and integrated care systems (ICSs); care providers; the Care Quality Commission (CQC) and workforce support bodies like ²»Á¼Ñо¿Ëù.
Social care is important for people, for communities and for the economy. It enables people to live well and contributes £60 billion to England’s economy each year.
Demographic changes mean that it is likely that the adult social care workforce will need to grow. We are living for longer – and the number of people aged over 65 is expected to grow by almost a third in the next decade. This means we may need 540,000 new social care posts by 2040. The number of people aged 18-64 with a learning disability, mental health need1 or a physical disability is also projected to increase over this period. By the time a person is aged 75, they are 60% more likely to possess two or more significant conditions. This figure increases to 75% for those between the ages of 85 and 89 years old.2
We are in a globally competitive labour market. Demographic changes are happening around the world. Countries we currently recruit from will need to keep more of their own workers – and we may face international competition for our own workers.
We cannot currently attract or keep enough people. In 2023-24, there were 131,000 vacancies on any given day – a vacancy rate of 8.3%, which was around three times the average for the economy. Over a quarter of people leave their jobs in care each year and around a third of them leave the sector altogether. 29% of our workforce – around 440,000 people – are over 55 and could retire in the next decade. Simply put, we don’t have enough people in adult social care today and we are going to need more tomorrow.