不良研究所

Adult social care sector and workforce in London

Data correct as at 2020/21

Next report due: November 2022

This page provides information about the adult social care sector and workforce in the London region. This is the latest information available from the Adult Social Care Workforce Data Set (ASC-WDS), taken from local authorities as at September 2020 and from independent sector employers as at March 2021. The updated report can be download now.

Downloading the visualisation

• The data behind the visualisation can be downloaded here.
• You can also download a PDF version by clicking on the arrow found at the bottom right of the visualisation.
• There are notes about the data when you hover over the ( i ) in the visualisation.
• For information about how workforce estimates are created or rounding and suppression rules please visit our webpage on methodology
• If you require data that isn’t available in the visualisation or report below, please contact us.

 

Key findings  

Changes in the adult social care workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic

• Levels of staff sickness have more than doubled over the course of the pandemic (an average of 8.5 days lost were lost to sickness in 2020/21 compared to 4. days before the pandemic).
• Since the start of the pandemic, occupancy levels in care homes have fallen. There were a high number of deaths among care home residents in 2020/21 as well as a shift in demand away from residential care and towards domiciliary care, both contributing to the decrease.
• Between 2019/20 and 2020/21 jobs in domiciliary care increased by around 7,500 jobs (a 7.7% increase). Over the same period, despite a decrease in occupancy rates, jobs in care homes remained broadly the same.
• Vacancy rates fell during the start of the pandemic, potentially due to fewer jobs being available in the wider economy during this period. Since May 2021, vacancy rates have steadily risen since as the wider economy has opened back up. As of August 2021, vacancy rates are now back above their pre-pandemic levels.
• 不良研究所’s estimates show that staff turnover rates decreased during the pandemic in 2020/21. Registered manager turnover rates were down by 4.9 percentage points and care workers turnover was down by 1.5 percentage points.
• Since March 2021, the opening up of the wider economy has been reported by employers to be adversely affecting retention, with many reporting that recruitment and retention is now more difficult than before the pandemic.

 

New immigration rules / travel restrictions

• Across England, there has been no evidence of the existing non-British workforce leaving at an increased rate since the new immigration rules came into place in January 2021.
• Data collected since March 2021, as would be expected given the new rules and COVID-19 travel restrictions in place, shows a sharp drop in the number of people arriving in the UK to take up adult social are jobs (1.8% of new starters in January-April 2021 compared to 5.2% during the same period in 2019).

 

Workforce and sector size

• The number of people working in adult social care was estimated at 219,000 as at 2020/21.
• The number of adult social care jobs as at 2020/21 was estimated at 238,000 – this has increased by around 3.4% (7,700) between 2019/20 and 2020/21.
• ASC-WDS data collected between March 2021 and August 2021 shows a decrease in jobs (filled posts) in recent months. Overall, the decrease was around -1.2%, and was higher in care homes (-2.9%) than in domiciliary care (-0.2%).
• An estimated 3,300 organisations were involved in providing or organising adult social care in the London region as at 2020/21. Those services were delivered in an estimated 5,550 establishments.

 

Workforce characteristics

• We estimate that, on average, 8.9% of roles in adult social care were vacant in 2020/21. This is equivalent to 16,500 vacancies being advertised on an average day.
• The turnover rate of directly employed staff working in the adult social care sector was 27.6% in 2020/21. This equates to approximately 47,000 people leaving their jobs over the course of the year. Most leavers don’t leave the sector. Around 66% of jobs were recruited from other roles within the sector.
• In April 2020, the National Living Wage rose from £8.21 to £8.72 (6.2% in nominal terms). This increase contributed to a 5.6% increase in the median nominal care worker hourly rate from March 2020 to March 2021.
• Analysis of workforce data from the ASC-WDS shows that there were differences in diversity between job roles. Notably, there were proportionally more males and more white people in senior roles than front line roles. The root cause of this difference can’t be ascertained from ASC-WDS data alone.
• Our forecasts show that if the adult social care workforce grows proportionally to the projected number of people aged 65 and over in the population between 2020 and 2035, an increase of 29% (69,000 extra jobs) would be required by 2035.
• Employers with favourable workforce metrics (such as high levels of learning and development), on average, had better outcomes (lower staff turnover and/or high CQC ratings).

 

Further resources

• Four interactive visualisations, and summary reports, showing information about the local authority areas in England can be found here.
• The ‘state of the adult social care sector and workforce in England’ report and interactive visualisation can be found here.
• To support the publication of workforce intelligence publications, we have published an adult social care workforce estimates excel file, which can be found here.